A group of parallel model simulations characterising historical climate conditions, climate predictions, or climate projections. Variation of the results across the ensemble members may give an estimate of modelling-based uncertainty. Ensembles made with the same model but different initial conditions only characterize the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability, whereas multimodel ensembles including simulations by several models also include the impact of model differences. Perturbed parameter ensembles, in which model parameters are varied in a systematic manner, aim to assess the uncertainty resulting from internal model specifications within a single model. Remaining sources of uncertainty unaddressed with model ensembles are related to systematic model errors or biases, which may be assessed from systematic comparisons of model simulations with observations wherever available. See also Climate projection.
MODEL ENSEMBLE
